New Bern, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

473
FXUS62 KMHX 061023
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
623 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Patchy fog this morning will give way to more seasonable
fall-like weather through mid-week.

2) Moderating conditions brings a warming trend back to the
region late this week and into the weekend, along with next
chance for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest analysis this morning shows a reinforcing
surge of cooler and drier air making its way southward across
eastern NC with a 1023mb high centered over the Great Lakes
ridging in from the north. The light winds and relative clear
skies earlier this morning promoted patchy and shallow but
dense fog in some spots, but the increasing N winds behind this
front and dropping Tds are helping scour this out. Not expecting
any visibility issues area-wide for the morning commute.

Tds will drop further today as high pressure builds further
into tomorrow, resulting in very pleasant mild and dry days
with highs near climo in the 75-80 range (low 70s OBX), but
cooler than normal lows well down into the 50s for the mainland,
and perhaps a few 40s for the normally cooler sheltered
locales. The strongest signal for this is on Wednesday morning
when the high crests overhead and environment is most favored
for radiational cooling. A few spotty lows in the upper 40s are
possible Thurs AM as well with light winds although TDs will be
a touch higher in the morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mid-level zonal flow returns Thu into the
weekend, and this will bring a modest warming trend back to
ENC. SW flow returns by the weekend as low pressure over the
southwestern Gulf meanders and then gradually lifts
northeastward towards the MS River Valley. The evolution of this
low still has plenty of question marks, especially as it
interacts with the stalled frontal boundary, but a general
consensus remains that as the low lifts to our west, frontal
boundary will also lift northward back across the Carolinas with
building WAA and deepening tropical moisture. Coupled with
increasingly meridional mid-level flow, increasing rain chances
are favored across much of the southeastern CONUS including
eastern NC. Above-average PWATs (not a surprise for advection
having Gulf origins) point to a risk of heavier rainfall with
probabilities of 24-hour precipitation exceeding 1" up to 20-40%
per some ensembles.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fog has largely scoured out this morning across area terminals
leaving mainly clear skies and light northeasterly winds at 5 kt
or less. Outside of some spotty diurnal cu, mainly clear skies
expected today with high pressure in control. Winds will become
gusty with increased mixing today as gusts top out near 15-20
kt. Gusts fall off by mid-afternoon as pressure gradient eases.

Clear skies tonight with a less than 10% risk of fog - any that
does develop with be very patchy and of minimal impact.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Mainly VFR conditions
expected through the period, both day and night with lowered
dewpoints. Overall fog chances appear low each night at around
10% or less.

&&

.MARINE...
NE surge advertised over the past few days has arrived over area
waters with regional observations showing winds of 5-15 kt north
of Cape Hatteras, and 15-20 kt south especially for offshore
waters. Seas have changed little, sitting at 3-5 feet across the
region. Main change to headlines was to drop the SCA north of
Cape Hatteras with winds under-performing guidance. Conditions
still appear marginal with only isolated gusts to 25 kt from
Hatteras south into the afternoon, save for Onslow Bay. Seas
peak at around 4-6 feet by this morning, then subsiding through
the rest of the day.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Northeasterly flow of
10-15 kt expected mid week as high pres will be anchored to the
north, and winds/seas remain below SCA thresholds. Deteriorating
conditions likely to begin on Friday and continue into the
weekend as frontal boundary begins to lift back northward from
the Gulf coast with increasing NE winds particularly over Onslow
Bay. SCA conditions likely to re-develop over the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ154-
     156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS